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Super Bowl XLVIII Prediction: a Bogus Data Science Approach

January 31st, 2014 Comments off

Needless to say, it has been a great season for Seahawks.  Seahawks is going to square it off with Broncos on Sunday for the Super Bowl! It is the second time Seahawks ever got into the championship game, and it is really exciting (even though I do not follow NFL in general, as a resident in Greater Seattle Area, I am really excited).  Will Seahawks do better this year and bring home the Vince Lombardi trophy?

The short answer is, sure, the odds are definitely favoring Seahawks. Chances are very good that Seahawks will win this game.

First off, Broncos didn’t have a very good track record of winning the Super Bowl.  Broncos got in 6 times in the past, and won only 2 of them.  Odds of winning? 1/3. Not so good. It tied with Patriots and Vikings in terms of the number of games lost. Maybe their odds is a tad better than those of the teams like Vikings, Bills, Bengals, Eagles, Chargers, Falcons, Titans, Panthers or Cadinals which never won a Super Bowl, but the odds of winning is definitely not favoring Broncos.

Second off, Broncos has never won a Super Bowl game before in a year of Horse. Super Bowl XXIV was held on 1/28/1990, which was two days into the year of Horse by lunar calendar. Broncos lost to 49ers 10:55, the widest loss ever in Super Bowl history. Even a game held anywhere near the year of Horse is bad for Broncos, e.g., Super Bowl  XII, Broncos lost to Dallas Cowboys 10:27. The game was held 1/15/1978, a few weeks before the official start of the year of Horse. That said, year of the Horse never bode well with Broncos before. And misinformed commentator from Denver was hopeful that Broncos will win because of the year of the Horse. Based on past performance, the chances are very slim. Why? If you know something about the Chinese zodiac, you would know that year of the Horse is called a year of “original zodiac year” (OZY) for anything associated with horse. And in an OZY, there potentially could be lots of bad luck, which could only be mitigated by wearing a red waist belt.  I bet the players on Broncos don’t know enough to wear the much needed red waist belt!

That said, I have every reason to believe that Seahawks will win the game on Sunday.

Go Hawks!

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